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Posts Tagged ‘Toyota Mirai’

Besides reading this article which happens to be 2 years old is still relevant today. A lot of the articles about BEV adoption is unrealistic nonsense that everyone will be switching away from gas/diesel combustion engine vehicles to battery electrics.

Without engines electric cars might be sputtering out

It may work in places like Norway where the population is only 5 million. In comparison the United States has over 300 million people. China’s EV sales only account for more than just 3% (figuring this info wasn’t easy and could be incorrect) but globally gasoline vehicles still account for over 95% of sales. The oil industry nearly collapsed and will more than likely have a nasty repercussion if gasoline vehicle sales drop in favor of battery electric. So even with looming bans of combustion engine vehicles the combustion engine vehicle sales will not only increase but continue to skyrocket as less public transportation is used for daily commutes due to the coronavirus outbreak. Not only that the oil industry will more than likely invest in combustion engine vehicles and potentially sell them cheaper than the dealer price will. Already Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge has accelerated production (before the coronavirus) so they were already prepared for a shutdown and pushed much of the inventory onto dealers. The dealerships were not happy but with extra inventory at hand they didn’t have to deal with the shutdowns of auto factories limiting the amount of vehicles being sold. But as factories are reopened the inventory levels should return to normal.

Auto sales are suffering especially for gas vehicles, but it’s to be expected when people don’t want to go outside. Some people and companies may think that electric vehicles are on the rise and the sales supposedly are not bad but they still haven’t surpassed gasoline vehicle sales. China sales overall really sunk as the outbreak was really bad there.

While over 95% of vehicle sales are going to gas (this includes hybrids) vehicles it isnt looking optimistic for electric vehicles and that wont change much, at least for the next several years. I still think the carpocalypse is still going to happen when countries try to ban combustion engine vehicles auto sales will be crushed. I mean if 1 out of every 1,000 is buying electric worldwide and that accounts to 50,000 electric out of 50,000,000 (this isnt accurate numbers) gasoline that’ll look more like 10,000 electric out of 50,000,000 gasoline sold. Eventually it’ll happen no matter what because most people wont even look at or touch a battery electric. When people go look at a car most of them dont even question the source of power. They go in and expect to buy a car that runs off of gas or diesel. This is why straight gas Honda Civics are still being sold despite having a hybrid battery option the majority still prefer straight gas.

You dont need to plug in a hybrid because the battery gets charged by the engine and brakes. Some are plug in hybrids but again most people wont consider a car they gotta plug in.

For now especially with public transportation commuters they will be buying an economical vehicle in which both Honda and Toyota offer gas and hybrids. So expect more Camry’s, Corolla’s, Civics and Accords being sold. The used market may dry up from many car buyers and will later on switch to new. It’s not easy finding a used Honda at the moment, though if you look hard enough you can find one. They’re just so good that new car buyers are still holding onto them. Either way except a ton of sedans being sold over the next couple of years.

So where does this leave the future of the car? No matter what people say or what governments will try and do electric cars wont sell a ton. They can fine the auto industry for not having electric vehicle sales but it doesn’t really matter. Battery electric vehicles are not practical. They can add recharge stations and put some chargers into residential areas but the truth is, they wont ever gain traction over the combustion engine vehicle. People wont buy a car you have to plug in. People wont buy one because they wont remember to plug it in. We’re used to going to a gas station to refuel and it refuels in minutes. When you forget to plug in an EV, it can take hours.

Electric vehicles are not the solution but an alternative energy source that’s 100% clean that’ll work in existing gasoline vehicles. That is far more practical and more than likely already underway by the oil industry. Eventually you can fuel a vehicle from home, it doesn’t have to be battery electric either. We all want clean air but it’s pointless to argue how or what to use to get there. It doesn’t even matter which is better because we worked with combustion engine vehicles for over 100 years and not one person has said, “well gee whiz, this car is so energy inefficient I wish I had a car that was far more efficient” because gasoline vehicles are energy efficient enough. You wont notice the difference other than that gas tank is smaller and lighter than any electric car battery. In fact I think electric car batteries are less efficient due to the weight/size of them. A Tesla weighs 5,000lbs while a Honda Civic only weighs under 3,000lbs. An extra 2,000lbs just for the battery. While some pony/muscle cars can weigh up to 4,500lbs its mostly due to the extra power/engine size. Other electric vehicles weigh roughly the same.

While electricity costs are low its because the demand generally is not there but in places where EVs are being driven, electric costs are going up. If EVs were replaced by gasoline vehicles today the electric cost would double and even triple. This is not just for EVs but you’ll be spending up to 3x to run any electric device at home. California already has electric costs at $0.31kW/h or higher. Illinois currently has $0.12kW/h. I shouldn’t have to pay more just so the people down the street can charge their vehicles. And I’m glad the neighbors dont have an electric car. I’ll be even more glad they wont consider  buying one. Because battery electric isnt the only clean renewable out there.

Hydrogen is the best bet, but i hope there is a better alternative to gas for the cars already on the road today. Because eventually we’ll have to abandon gas. It just should not be a car that you have to plug in to recharge it every night. Battery electric vehicles may be able to tow a lot but not for very long. Gas and diesel still has better towing range. Dont expect that Cybertruck from Tesla to get 100 miles towing a boat.

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Edit: Seen this article on how they want to use your electric vehicle battery to power the grid, Electric Vehicle Batteries Will ‘Dwarf’ The Grid’s Energy-Storage Needs

See the cons below for more details

Well its happened in Europe. EV adoption is at 1% and read in an article they increased electric costs by 500%. So depending on where you are at. Say you are paying $0.15 a kW. Well in Europe they’re paying $0.85 a kW. Doesnt sound great does it? So far there hasn’t been an increase in electric costs here but most of the BEV adoption occurs in California and well, they cant even keep their power grid on leaving EV motorists stranded. At least most gas stations have the sense to keep backup generators so that way you can still buy gas.

Back to topic, can you imagine paying $50 a month to keep your fridge running. I couldn’t. It used to cost $30 a month or so to run the older fridges but newer more energy efficient ones will run $10 a month on your electric bill, depending on the kW cost and energy needed to run your fridge monthly.  With the U.S. the way it is they may open or reopen a few coal plants just to keep costs lower. But for other countries like Europe they may be doing cleaner energy like solar or wind. Possibly nuclear. But then they would need to build more to keep up demand for the electric cars. And this could just be one area or whatever but still if you need to build more power plants because people are switching to BEVs then that’s a problem because when you need to build cost goes up. Its supply and demand.

Most likely these people are charging at night so its likely there isnt a huge demand going on but maybe enough people caused the power grid to collapse and they decided we need to upgrade the grid and increase the costs. Perhaps this cost is temporary to keep the existing grid stable or its because they realized that oh I guess even if you plug in at night you can still have issues. But your still running your fridge at night and most likely your air conditioner if it’s hot outside and if you got electric heat, running that during cold weather.

But electric grids are not set up for battery electric vehicles. In the U.S. we have to try to keep the electric consumption down so they tell us to turn the thermostat down as far as possible but still try to be comfortable and we were also told to buy more energy efficient appliances.

Now some may be doing this sort of thing for earth day but really it’s to get people to lower energy costs because the power grid can’t handle all the strain.

Ever notice on nice days no wind all of a sudden the lights flicker or you lose power for a second but it comes back on? Well more often then not that’s the grid being overloaded. More power is being drawn than what the power plants are supplying. The demand is higher than the supply in this instance. Normally if the power resumes just fine its probably an air conditioner kicking on or someone plugged in their phone. Doesnt matter what it is. If you notice the power coming on and off and then off then its possible someone turned on something high powered or something like charging an EV. I believe when this occurs and the power keeps coming on and off usually then it shuts off completely for like 10 minutes to an hour. Either a transformer blew or maybe the power company temporarily cut power to the affected areas. Some of this is guesswork but I’m assuming that this is what goes on. I do know that if the power flickers or cuts out that’s considered a brownout. Not enough power is supplied.

Cost obviously doesnt increase normally because of a one time brownout but if it gets to be continuous then cost may perhaps go up when the power company is unable to sustain the grid effective enough. So while we may not see a major brownout occurring it may be that we’re not there yet with too many EVs trying to charge at the same time.

It wont matter whether that you charge in the day or at night, if too many plug in then it’s going to be a mess on the grid. In reality this isnt good because we all need heat and airconditoning and power to our fridges and stoves so we got food to eat. So if you are reading this and was considering an BEV. Please do not buy one. No one can force you not to if you really want one. But then you shouldn’t be convinced to buy one either. There is people out there trying very hard to convince, coerce, force or whatever, to buy a battery electric vehicle. I get it, the environment but if our grid isnt ready then we’re going to have a bad time. I dont want to buy one and really I dont want people to buy one for the fact that my electric bill could go up and someone on a fixed income could have their bill go up.

The option here may be to charge BEV owners that plug in to the grid more money to offset the costs. It’s not right that everyone has to pay because some people bought an EV and is overloading the grid. And so far that may be the best thing to do. Not only that there are way more cons to owning an EV.

Cons of battery electric vehicles

  1. Too many EVs will strain the power grid causing the price of electricity to go up.
  2. Charging time, 30 minutes or more. Causes a pile up of vehicles waiting to be charged at charging stations and you will be sitting for hours on end waiting for a vacant spot to open.
  3. Limited range, less range means more time spent at charging stations.
  4. Batteries may not last past 10 years.
  5. You lose 50% range in cold weather.
  6. Less gasoline or internal combustion engines sold causing a 25% job reduction.
  7. The power companies want to use your electric vehicle battery to power the grid. This will reduce battery life by at least 25% causing you to buy another battery in 6 years instead of say 10 years.

So that adds up to 6 7 negative aspects to owning a battery electric vehicle. How about some pros..

  1. They’re fast at 0-60 ..after that gasoline has more horsepower.
  2. Less maintenance ..until you need to replace the battery.
  3. Got a refueling station at home ..but your electricity bill will go up
  4. I dont have to pay the evil oil company overlords …well everything you buy is pretty much manufactured by oil at some point, so you’re still paying for oil in some way or another.
  5. They are better for the environment ..eh, sort of.

So even the pros are not necessarily pros. So your not saving any money by driving electric. You may be helping the environment a little, it’s hard to say but you wont be helping the cost of electricity in the future. It’s going to go up. Its supply and demand. You wont ever get out of that one because there isnt enough power to replace gasoline vehicles with battery electric ones. So I wrote this blog into hoping that people think twice before buying one. You wont save any money, you do have fewer maintenance costs but the cost to replace that battery if it fails is almost as much as a new gas vehicle. It’s really not worth switching to electric unless you really want to have one. But all the pros listed are pretty much humoring the cons of owning an EV. Honestly I don’t see one good thing about them and its mainly because they just are not good vehicles yet. They want to push these vehicles out to everyone but it’s like pushing out the first Ford model T out when there are cars that do the job better. And right now the gas cars are working fine. Dont be forced or whatever into buying a battery electric vehicle future. You’ll thank me in 20 years when Hydrogen fuel cells come out and be far better in every way. By that time jobs should be gearing towards the future better. We’re not there yet. What these people are doing, trying to convince you that battery electric vehicles are better is just evil. There is nothing to benefit from an electric vehicle other than the investors who are trying to get paid big bucks for an electric vehicle future powered by batteries.

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Oh no not another electric vehicle post. Sorry, not sorry but with this extreme push for battery electric vehicles or BEVs I have to show the negative sides of them and why its best to wait around for hydrogen fuel cells.

 

1. Limited range

Batteries can only store so much energy and even with the advances the more range you’re looking for the more expensive they’ll be. A Tesla model 3 costs around $40k when you factor taxes, charging equipment and hire an electrician to get the most out of recharging. But let’s face it, for $20k I can get more range out of a muscle car.


2. Recharging time

Even though you may charge at home and ‘wake up every morning with a full tank’ it still takes time to charge and our electric grid is unreliable at best. You will be waking up one day without power and your 220 mile Tesla is now a 50 mile range vehicle with no place to charge because well.. no power. Most gas stations will have a backup generator allowing motorists to continue driving around. But you are stuck with a 50 mile driving range. Doesnt work if you daily drive more than 20 miles, even if you do manage to make it into work you will still need a recharge. Imagine having to wait hours and hours in a public charging station because everyone else who owns a Tesla or other EV will be waiting in line because they lost power. Either that or they traveled too far and need a recharge. A minimum  of 30 minutes for an EV or a 5 minute refueling time for gasoline those who drive gas will not generally be affected by power loss, unless the gas station you went to doesnt have a backup generator… it’s best to ask.

 

3. Range is limited in the cold

My friend had a Tesla with a 300 mile range. When it was 20F he woke up to a half charge with a range of 100 miles. He thought well, I only work 20 miles away it’ll be fine. It was fine driving into work but upon driving home from work he got about 5 miles before the Tesla quit on him. He got rid of it and bought a Honda. 🤣😂

The cold is bad on lithium ion batteries. They don’t like the heat and they certainly dont like the cold. Adverse temperatures is bad for any battery, this is why you need to have your gas vehicle battery checked out every year, especially at winter time they can be an issue, in very cold weather. Stop and go driving is generally harder on them but using a battery electric car on the highway, that range doesnt come back because the car is doing everything it can to generate heat, however driving 60+ mph it takes longer for it to heat up so that heat is often wasted by that cold wind.

Gas cars are not impervious to cold weather either but well maintained gas vehicles will operate better in cold climates. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the best in cold weather. Another reason why we need more of these vehicles.

 

4. The electric grid won’t handle a BEV takeover

You know I read in the Chicago Tribune that best charging times will be after 2:00A.M. I leave for work by 3:30A.M. there is no way it’ll finish charging by the time I have to leave for work. Even then this is another inconvenience, you gotta charge on their rules, not when it’s convenient for you. Not everyone has the same routines and here again, the recharge time and power reliability. You can gas up your vehicle any time you need to but charging is different. Sure you can charge anytime you want, but you won’t get the best rates. And when this happens rates for electricity will still go up when too many are plugging in. We bought energy efficient appliances because we wanted to save money on electricity but not only that its because the grid is taxed by energy draining devices.

 

5. Lithium ion materials are not easy to get

Even with all these BEVs coming out, there is a lithium ion supply shortage. We dont have a reliable supply, like gas it’s a finite resource. And when resources become scarce the prices go up. If you need a replacement battery and you sold your gas clunker for a shiny EV but the battery died, well who’s to say they’ll have a replacement on standby for you. If all their loaner vehicles are in use, you may be stuck paying for a $35 daily rental for however long. Could be a week or it could be months. In reality, you’re better off sticking to a gas vehicle. You may need a replacement engine or transmission which isnt that common, at least they have the parts needed to get you back on the road as quickly as possible. May take a few days to a week but that’s nothing compared to how long people had to wait for a replacement Tesla part.

 

6. How long will that battery last? The cost of owning a BEV

I don’t know. Often times they’ll say it’ll get 300k easy but when gas vehicles get that much and more you want to think more in terms of, how many years will the batteries last. Currently you can get 30+ years out of a Honda or Toyota.. basically any well built vehicle will last you if you keep up on the preventative maintenance. Regular oil and other fluid changes are needed for your vehicle’s survival. Fresh fluids equals a happy vehicle that will take care of your transportation needs but also regular checkups and taking it easy on the gas when you dont really need all that horsepower going. Leave it for the highway ramps.

Anyways the only real ways to treat a battery right on these EVs is charge it only to 80% and leave 30% left. Not exactly leaving you with much range there, along with the cold you’re just not going anywhere fast. Ideally you want a garage but if you park on the street or in an apartment complex that just isnt possible. The same with being at work, you have to leave the vehicle outside. Adverse weather will degrade the batteries. I can’t even keep all my cars in a garage. Let alone they are parked outside at work for 10 hours. BEVs just wouldn’t work.

But at the most I’ve seen a battery last is 10 years. But most of them last 3-7 years depending on various reasons I wont get into but somehow EVs could top all those batteries? The cost alone wouldn’t be worth it seeing as it would take in my case, 10 years before seeing savings from driving a BEV.

Even if the batteries were to die in 12 years or so, it’s still not worth it. Batteries are another environmental concern and the fact that eventually we will have to dispose of them. Regardless if there was a 2nd application for them. What happens when they are no longer usable?

I dont know either but the oldest BEV battery I know of is at least 8 years old. It’s only a matter of time before we find out the cutoff point and I’m not willing to risk a battery dying 8 years down the road and your warranty has expired. Non Tesla batteries are more prone to failure but eventually even Tesla batteries will drop like an anchor. Right now its the tipping point for these batteries. Will they last longer than 10 years or will they all start to die out after the warranty has ended. This will definitely create major problems for anyone who owns a BEV.

By the time these batteries start to fizzle out, hydrogen should be around the corner. There are hybrids as well but the batteries don’t really last in those vehicles and it’s a gamble whether the vehicle will function adequately when the battery no longer holds a charge. In my opinion buy a Honda or Toyota if you want to spend the least amount of money. Those vehicles last forever and get pretty good gas mileage. Wait for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and ignore the BEV evangelists. They really are not helping and neither is the government that is trying very hard to get people to buy an expensive piece of battery powered machinery with no telling how long they’ll last. They very well could end up being a financial nightmare for the owners if that battery one day will just quit. And that will happen eventually.

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Hydrogen fuel cell technology has dropped (or will drop) in price making it much better to succeed. Ok first off, I’m not trying to say that electric isn’t the future with vehicles, nor am I saying we should stick with gas vehicles indefinitely. I would like a cleaner vehicle but battery powered.. not so much. Now that’s out of the way hydrogen fuel cells are similar to gas in the range and refueling (only takes 5 minutes to refuel a hydrogen vehicle) without the adverse affects of lost range especially in the cold.

Battery electric has an issue with the  cold and they lose up to 50% of the capacity. Doesnt help when range is only around 220 miles or less. The more expensive models get up to 325 miles. Sure you can charge in 30 minutes or so but you’ll be waiting awhile for it to finish charging. It doesnt do well when there are other people waiting in line.

The fact is, battery electric vehicles are not ready yet, no matter what people are saying. You have to make changes in order to make them work. In today’s society where everyone is already in a rush waiting for your vehicle to charge is going to make things worse. Even if you charge at home the limited range will eventually catch up and you’ll realize that 200 mile range wont be enough. Again some people are willing to sacrifice their time to do this others won’t.

The other problem is the battery lifespan. If you can get 20 or more years out of a gasoline vehicle (especially the way prices are for new vehicles its the best option) then you’d get your money’s worth provided you kept up on the preventative maintenance and did not have so many problems with the vehicle during its use. Most cars need constant attention and having a mechanic look it over every 3 months is ideal. You would have to check the fluids once a month including watching for leaks. By the time you start saving money on an EV chances are that EV may be 8-10 years old already. Not exactly saving any money here if you are having to replace the battery.

There isnt any evidence yet suggesting that EV batteries will last for more than 10 years because they haven’t been around for very long. It’s really a gamble seeing the average lifespan of a battery. The average gas car lifespan is around 11 years but they would last longer if people just changed the fluids on time. You can make a gas car last 20 years or longer. The only thing is rust. You have to make sure to rust proof them. Wash and wax them, use the undercarriage spray and also check out autobody shops and see what they offer for rust proofing. The one I take it to you end up having to replace every 2-4 years because its Fluid Film that either dissolves over time or over the salt or water. And it costs $200-400 depending on the vehicle.

I’m getting off topic here but you get the general idea here. The same rustproofing methods could be applied to an electric car but again how long will the batteries last. This is why BEVs should stay in the niche market until tests have been verified on how long do battery EVs last. They can cost anywhere from $5k to $17k. The cheaper ones may not last very long and you’ll have to do the math to see when you start saving money. Also electric rates are not fixed so they can go up as well. The last thing we need is to pay more to run our appliances. We bought energy saving appliances not only to pay less each month but because our electric grid can’t handle a whole lot.

This is probably my 5th or 6th post on BEVs and while they are pretty much anti electric they are just not there yet with the technology yet. It is far better to wait for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as they’ll be far better in the long run. Fast refueling, long range similar to gas and no loss of range or major problems in the cold. The argument of you dont need long range, and you’ll charge at home is just not sound arguments when eventually you’ll have to use a charging station and it could be packed where you’ll be waiting longer for a charge than you will at a gas station.

If you still want a BEV that’s fine but dont let anyone tell you, you should buy them because of low cost or that they are better for the environment because your just moving the tailpipe emissions to somewhere else. Our infrastructure isnt at all green and it wont happen overnight. Really environmentalists should focus on getting our oceans and water sources clean. Not worry over what kind of cars people drive because gas vehicles are more efficient and clean than ever before. Let’s wait for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to work their magic. We may see them in a couple of decades. Even if naysayers think HFC isn’t, they are coming sooner than you think.

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