Besides reading this article which happens to be 2 years old is still relevant today. A lot of the articles about BEV adoption is unrealistic nonsense that everyone will be switching away from gas/diesel combustion engine vehicles to battery electrics.
Without engines electric cars might be sputtering out
It may work in places like Norway where the population is only 5 million. In comparison the United States has over 300 million people. China’s EV sales only account for more than just 3% (figuring this info wasn’t easy and could be incorrect) but globally gasoline vehicles still account for over 95% of sales. The oil industry nearly collapsed and will more than likely have a nasty repercussion if gasoline vehicle sales drop in favor of battery electric. So even with looming bans of combustion engine vehicles the combustion engine vehicle sales will not only increase but continue to skyrocket as less public transportation is used for daily commutes due to the coronavirus outbreak. Not only that the oil industry will more than likely invest in combustion engine vehicles and potentially sell them cheaper than the dealer price will. Already Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge has accelerated production (before the coronavirus) so they were already prepared for a shutdown and pushed much of the inventory onto dealers. The dealerships were not happy but with extra inventory at hand they didn’t have to deal with the shutdowns of auto factories limiting the amount of vehicles being sold. But as factories are reopened the inventory levels should return to normal.
Auto sales are suffering especially for gas vehicles, but it’s to be expected when people don’t want to go outside. Some people and companies may think that electric vehicles are on the rise and the sales supposedly are not bad but they still haven’t surpassed gasoline vehicle sales. China sales overall really sunk as the outbreak was really bad there.
While over 95% of vehicle sales are going to gas (this includes hybrids) vehicles it isnt looking optimistic for electric vehicles and that wont change much, at least for the next several years. I still think the carpocalypse is still going to happen when countries try to ban combustion engine vehicles auto sales will be crushed. I mean if 1 out of every 1,000 is buying electric worldwide and that accounts to 50,000 electric out of 50,000,000 (this isnt accurate numbers) gasoline that’ll look more like 10,000 electric out of 50,000,000 gasoline sold. Eventually it’ll happen no matter what because most people wont even look at or touch a battery electric. When people go look at a car most of them dont even question the source of power. They go in and expect to buy a car that runs off of gas or diesel. This is why straight gas Honda Civics are still being sold despite having a hybrid battery option the majority still prefer straight gas.
You dont need to plug in a hybrid because the battery gets charged by the engine and brakes. Some are plug in hybrids but again most people wont consider a car they gotta plug in.
For now especially with public transportation commuters they will be buying an economical vehicle in which both Honda and Toyota offer gas and hybrids. So expect more Camry’s, Corolla’s, Civics and Accords being sold. The used market may dry up from many car buyers and will later on switch to new. It’s not easy finding a used Honda at the moment, though if you look hard enough you can find one. They’re just so good that new car buyers are still holding onto them. Either way except a ton of sedans being sold over the next couple of years.
So where does this leave the future of the car? No matter what people say or what governments will try and do electric cars wont sell a ton. They can fine the auto industry for not having electric vehicle sales but it doesn’t really matter. Battery electric vehicles are not practical. They can add recharge stations and put some chargers into residential areas but the truth is, they wont ever gain traction over the combustion engine vehicle. People wont buy a car you have to plug in. People wont buy one because they wont remember to plug it in. We’re used to going to a gas station to refuel and it refuels in minutes. When you forget to plug in an EV, it can take hours.
Electric vehicles are not the solution but an alternative energy source that’s 100% clean that’ll work in existing gasoline vehicles. That is far more practical and more than likely already underway by the oil industry. Eventually you can fuel a vehicle from home, it doesn’t have to be battery electric either. We all want clean air but it’s pointless to argue how or what to use to get there. It doesn’t even matter which is better because we worked with combustion engine vehicles for over 100 years and not one person has said, “well gee whiz, this car is so energy inefficient I wish I had a car that was far more efficient” because gasoline vehicles are energy efficient enough. You wont notice the difference other than that gas tank is smaller and lighter than any electric car battery. In fact I think electric car batteries are less efficient due to the weight/size of them. A Tesla weighs 5,000lbs while a Honda Civic only weighs under 3,000lbs. An extra 2,000lbs just for the battery. While some pony/muscle cars can weigh up to 4,500lbs its mostly due to the extra power/engine size. Other electric vehicles weigh roughly the same.
While electricity costs are low its because the demand generally is not there but in places where EVs are being driven, electric costs are going up. If EVs were replaced by gasoline vehicles today the electric cost would double and even triple. This is not just for EVs but you’ll be spending up to 3x to run any electric device at home. California already has electric costs at $0.31kW/h or higher. Illinois currently has $0.12kW/h. I shouldn’t have to pay more just so the people down the street can charge their vehicles. And I’m glad the neighbors dont have an electric car. I’ll be even more glad they wont consider buying one. Because battery electric isnt the only clean renewable out there.
Hydrogen is the best bet, but i hope there is a better alternative to gas for the cars already on the road today. Because eventually we’ll have to abandon gas. It just should not be a car that you have to plug in to recharge it every night. Battery electric vehicles may be able to tow a lot but not for very long. Gas and diesel still has better towing range. Dont expect that Cybertruck from Tesla to get 100 miles towing a boat.